"双碳"目标下中国工业部门氢能需求量测算及供给结构路径优化
Towards China's"dual carbon"goals:Industrial hydrogen demand estimation and supply structure optimization
李忻颖 1唐旭 1许传博 2王敏 1马美艳1
作者信息
- 1. 中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院
- 2. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院
- 折叠
摘要
在推进"双碳"目标实现的过程中,中国的能源系统迫切需要加快转型.工业部门由于其特有的对传统化石能源燃料和原料的依赖,发展过程中存在大量难减排的行业,氢能以来源丰富、绿色低碳、应用广泛等优势为工业部门提供了一条切实可行的深度脱碳路线.为此,构建了 3 阶段模型框架,测算了中国工业部门重点行业氢能需求量,最后探讨了氢能供给结构的优化路径.研究结果显示:①工业部门用氢主要集中于钢铁、水泥、甲醇及合成氨等难以通过电气化实现脱碳的关键行业;②从需求侧来看,在参考情景、低渗透情景及高渗透情景下,2060 年工业部门的氢能需求量分别为 2 509.1×104 t、5 037.8×104 t、6 865.7×104 t;③从供给侧来看,氢能供给结构将从以化石能源为主的灰氢逐步过渡到以可再生能源为主的绿氢;④随着绿氢的应用比例增高,预计在2020-2060 年期间,氢能可累计替代煤炭 41.7×108 t标准煤、石油 11.3×108 t标准煤,累计碳减排贡献比例有望达 16.7%.结论认为,中国工业部门减少化石能源需求量和碳排放量需要重点依托绿氢产业的高质量发展.
Abstract
Under the national drive to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality("dual carbon"),it is imperative for China's energy system to accelerate the pace towards low-carbon transition.The industrial sector,with high dependency upon traditional fossil fuels and materials,is very hard to decarbonize in so many fields.Luckily,abundant,green and scalable hydrogen offers a feasible solution to the problem.As such,a three-stage model was set up to estimate the hydrogen demand of key industrial industries,and to explore optimized pathways towards hydrogen supply.The results show that:1)major hydrogen consumption comes from steel and iron,cement,methanol and ammonia synthesis,all being hard-to-debate by electrification process;2)under the reference scenario,high penetration and low penetration scenarios,the estimated hydrogen demand in 2060 is 2 509.1×104 t,5 037.8×104 t,6 865.7×104 t,respectively;3)the supply structure will shift to green hydrogen(renewables)from gray hydrogen(fossil energy);4)with increasing application of green hydrogen,it's estimated that between 2020 and 2060,hydrogen would replace coals of 41.7×108 tce and petroleum of 11.3×108 tce,reducing 16.7%of carbon emissions.In summary,scaling up hydrogen development is essential for China's industrial sectors to cut energy demand and carbon emissions.
关键词
中国/工业部门/氢能需求/供给结构/能源替代/减排贡献Key words
China/Industrial sector/Hydrogen demand/Supply structure/Energy substitution/Emission abatement引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据