Towards China's"dual carbon"goals:Industrial hydrogen demand estimation and supply structure optimization
Under the national drive to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality("dual carbon"),it is imperative for China's energy system to accelerate the pace towards low-carbon transition.The industrial sector,with high dependency upon traditional fossil fuels and materials,is very hard to decarbonize in so many fields.Luckily,abundant,green and scalable hydrogen offers a feasible solution to the problem.As such,a three-stage model was set up to estimate the hydrogen demand of key industrial industries,and to explore optimized pathways towards hydrogen supply.The results show that:1)major hydrogen consumption comes from steel and iron,cement,methanol and ammonia synthesis,all being hard-to-debate by electrification process;2)under the reference scenario,high penetration and low penetration scenarios,the estimated hydrogen demand in 2060 is 2 509.1×104 t,5 037.8×104 t,6 865.7×104 t,respectively;3)the supply structure will shift to green hydrogen(renewables)from gray hydrogen(fossil energy);4)with increasing application of green hydrogen,it's estimated that between 2020 and 2060,hydrogen would replace coals of 41.7×108 tce and petroleum of 11.3×108 tce,reducing 16.7%of carbon emissions.In summary,scaling up hydrogen development is essential for China's industrial sectors to cut energy demand and carbon emissions.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
