China's natural gas peak-shaving in 2023 and market demand outlook for 2024
In order to promote natural gas to play a greater role in the construction of China's new energy system,the characteristics of China's natural gas peak-shaving demand in 2023 are reviewed for the outlook on the development trend of China's natural gas market in 2024.The results show that:(1)In 2023,China's natural gas supply and demand were generally loose,and the annual seasonal peak load scale is 212×108 m3,accounting for 5.4%of the total consumption,which is lower than that in 2022;(2)In 2023,the high-consumption monthly non-uniformity coefficient was 1.34,and the low-consumption monthly non-uniformity coefficient was 0.85,with the monthly peak-to-valley ratio of 1.57.The monthly fluctuation was narrowed under the influence of market anomaly at the beginning of the year and off-season demand growth;(3)In 2023,the peak daily consumption rose sharply under the stimulus of the historic cold wave,and the annual peak reached 15.7×108 m3/d,an increase of 18.9%yea-on-year;(4)City gas and power generation gas became the main demand for peak regulation,and industrial fuel and chemical raw material sectors stabilized the seasonal fluctuations to a certain extent;(5)The peak capacity of gas storage facilities has reached a new level,with more new product varieties;(6)With many favorable conditions,it is expected that China's natural gas demand is likely to grow 8.8%to 4264×108 m3 in 2024,mainly coming from industrial fuels and power generation;(7)The annual peak demand for natural gas in 2024 is projected at about 227×108 m3,an year-on-year increase of 7.0%;(8)In 2024,the growth of natural gas supply capacity will exceed the growth of demand with loose overall supply,and the LNG spot demand will remain strong under the positive scenario;(9)In conclusion,it is suggested that domestic natural gas import enterprises pay great attention to the supply side risks of the international market,natural gas sales enterprises do a good job in winter resource reserves in advance,urban gas enterprises utilize the reform benefits to timely make up for safety and gas storage shortcomings,and natural gas facility/equipment enterprises actively develop market-oriented business models.
Natural gasSupplyDemandPeak-shavingGas storage facilitiesProduct varietyNatural gas utilization policy
万方数据
维普
