There are abundant tight-gas resources in Sichuan Basin,exhibiting a bright prospect in exploration and development.In re-cent years,accumulation rules have been regained for tight gas to made great progress in its integrated assessment and to achieve both geological and engineering breakthrough.As a result,the large-scale production increase has been obtained apparently in this domain from the Shaximiao Formation,Sichuan Basin.To predict peak production is important for ensuring goals of natural-gas development.So,considered great changes in tight-gas historical production in the basin,both Hubbert and Ward models were employed for predict-ing this peak.In the prediction,the ultimate recoverable reserves were conducted as an entry point between mathematical models and resource potential,and the reserve discovery was effectively linked with the production-increasing prediction.Finally,two reserve-pro-duction coupled prediction models were established under the constraint of main controls.Results show that(i)in Sichuan Basin,the tight-gas production is expected to maintain a rapid growth in the next decade,possibly amounting to the production capacity of ten billion cubic meters;(ii)the peak predicted from the Hubbert model will achieve(70-105)×108 m3 in 2036 and hold a relatively stable production for 6 years,while that from the Ward model of(38-90)×108 m3 in 2045 and the stable production also for 6 years;and(iii)predicted findings from the former are more accurate than those from another one.In conclusion,the established high-preci-sion prediction models that conform to the"wave"growth of tight-gas production may overcome some problems in traditional predic-tion ways,for example poor fitting and difficulty in prediction.In addition,they make the leap from qualitative to quantitative predic-tion on the peak production of tight gas,and provide a technical support for figuring out the goals of tight-gas development in Sichuan Basin.
Tight gasPeak productionProduction predictionHubbert modelWard model
万方数据
维普
