Sensitivity Assessment of Complex Disaster System in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
[Objective]Identifying the sensitivity of disasters is an important prerequisite for disaster prevention and reduction,and sensitivity assessment of complex disaster systems is an important component of risk assessment of composite disaster systems.[Methods]Firstly,the sensitivity assessment index system of the composite disaster system was constructed according to the characteristics of the rainstorm landslide disaster chain,and then the susceptibility of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was evaluated by using Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detectors-Analytic Hierarchy Process(OPGD-AHP).Through the sensitivity analysis of rainstorm and landslide,the sensitivity classification maps of rainstorm and landslide in the Greater Bay Area were obtained respectively.And the threshold value and conversion probability of landslide induced by rainstorm were obtained through statistical analysis,so as to analyze the sensitivity of rainstorm landslide disaster chain and finally the sensitivity classification map of the rainstorm-landslide disaster chain in the Greater Bay Area was obtained.[Results](1)The highly sensitive areas of the rainstorm landslide disaster chain in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao were mainly distributed in the northwest of Guangning County and Huaiji County,and in the east of Huiyang District and Huidong County.(2)The sub high sensitivity and medium sensitivity areas were mainly distributed in areas such as Fengkai,Deqing,Conghua,Longmen,Boluo,etc.(3)Low sensitivity areas and sub low sensitivity areas were mainly distributed in central areas such as South China Sea,Liwan,Chancheng,Shunde,Nansha,Panyu,Sanshui,Baiyun,etc.[Conclusion]The research results could provide scientific basis and technical support for disaster prevention and reduction,as well as enhancing the resistance and resilience of the disaster chain in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
complex disaster systemsensitivity assessmentCNNOPGD-AHPGuangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
万方数据
维普
