[目的]随着气候变化和人类活动影响加剧，流域气候和下垫面条件发生改变，为准确模拟土壤水分变化过程并分析其影响因素对于地区的水资源管理和植被建设的重要意义。[方法]以黄土高原地区渭河流域为研究对象，基于ABCD水文模型，采用EFAST法分析模型参数敏感性，构建常参数和时变参数模型，比较不同参数模型的径流深和土壤水储量模拟精度，探讨气候变化和植被恢复对渭河流域土壤水储量变化的影响，明确土壤水储量变化的主导因素。[结果]土壤水层补给地下水的比例。参数c最为敏感，地下水储放系数d、流域实际蒸散发量与土壤蓄水量之和的上限参数b次之，表征土壤完全饱和前径流的倾向性参数a最不敏感;与ABCD常参数模型相比，时变参数模型将率定期径流深模拟结果的NSE、KGE、R2分别提高19％，10％，19％，验证期的NSE、KGE、R2分别提高7％，7％，9％，时变参数模型显著改善径流深模拟效果;基于时变参数模型模拟的渭河流域土壤水储量与ERA5-Land 0-100 cm 土层土壤水储量的相关关系最强，二者的变化过程基本相同;不同影响因素对渭河流域土壤水储量变化的影响程度由强到弱依次为潜在蒸散发＞降水＞NDVI。[结论]研究成果为该地区水资源规划和管理、植被建设提供科学依据，也为其他类似地区的土壤水储量研究提供参考。
Simulation and Influencing Factors of Soil Water Storage in the Weihe River Basin Under Changing Environment
[Objective]With the intensified influence of climate change and human activities,the climate and underlying surface conditions of the basins have changed.Accurately simulating the process of soil moisture change and analyzing its influencing factors are of great significance for regional water resource management and vegetation construction.[Methods]The Weihe River Basin in the Loess Plateau was taken as the research object.Based on the ABCD hydrological model,the EFAST method was used to analyze the parameter sensitivity of the model,and the constant parameter and time-varying parameter models were constructed.The runoff depth and soil water storage simulation accuracy of different parameter models were compared.The effects of climate change and vegetation restoration on soil water storage changes in the Weihe River Basin were discussed,and the dominant factors of soil water storage changes were clarified.[Results]The proportional parameter of soil water layer recharge groundwater c was the most sensitive,followed by the groundwater storage coefficient d,the upper limit parameter b of the sum of actual evapotranspiration and soil water storage,and the tendency parameter a of runoff that before the soil is completely saturated was the least sensitive.Compared with the ABCD constant parameter model,the time-varying parameter model increased the values of NSE,KGE,and R2 of the runoff depth simulation results by 19％,10％,and 19％,respectively,and the NSE,KGE,and R2 of the verification period increased by 7％,7％,and 9％,respectively.The time-varying parameter model significantly improved the runoff depth simulation results.The srtongest correlation between soil water storage in the Weihe river basin and ERA 5-Land 0-100 cm soil layer based on time-varying parameter model simulation,and the change process of the two agreed well.The degree of different influencing factors on the change of soil water storage in the Weihe River Basin from strong to weak was potential evapotranspiration＞precipitation＞NDVI.[Conclusion]The research results provide a scientific basis for water resources planning and management and vegetation construction in this area and they also provide references for soil water storage research in other similar areas.
Weihe River BasinABCD hydrological modeltime-varying parameterssoil water storageinfluencing factors
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