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滇中城市群碳储量时空演变及其对LULC变化的响应

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
[目的]通过分析滇中城市群碳储量的时空演变特征及其对土地利用/覆被(land use/land cover，LULC)变化的响应，以深化对该区域碳循环的理解，从而有效地指导碳管理和生态恢复策略的制定。[方法]利用In VEST和PLUS模型模拟并预测1990-2030年滇中城市群碳储量的时空演变规律，结合土地覆被变化数据，定量分析碳储量与LULC变化之间的响应关系。[结果](1)1990-2020年滇中城市群的土地类型主要以林地、耕地和草地为主，林地、耕地和建设用地呈增长趋势，其中建设用地增幅最大;(2)滇中城市群碳储量呈现出"先增后减，逐渐趋于平稳"的变化特征，2000年达到最高值，为1。46 × 109 t，到2020年下降到1。45× 109 t，空间上呈"西高东低"的分布特征;(3)未来不同发展情景下的碳储量预测显示，与2020年相比，4个情景到2030年碳储量均呈下降趋势，其中生态发展情景下降最少，相比2020年下降0。43× 107 t，而耕地发展情景下降最为显著，相比2020年下降1。05× 107 t;(4)耕地和林地间的转变是影响碳储量的主要因素，其中耕地向林地的转换对滇中城市群碳储量增加尤为关键，林地增加可显著提升区域碳储量，而草地减少则对碳储量产生负面影响。[结论]林地和耕地转换对增加或降低滇中城市群碳储量具有显著影响。
Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Storage in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration and Its Response to LULC Change
[Objective]This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the carbon cycle by analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration and its response to land use/land cover(LULC)change,so as to effective guidance for carbon management and ecological restoration strategies.[Methods]InVEST and PLUS models were used to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2030.By combining data on LULC change,the relationship between carbon storage and LULC change was quantitatively analyzed.[Results](1)From 1990 to 2020,the land types of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration were mainly forestland,cropland,and grassland,and forestland,cropland,and construction land showed an increasing trend,among which construction land increased the largest.(2)Carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration presented a change characteristics of"first increase and then decrease,gradually stabilize",reaching a maximum value of 1.46 × 109 t in 2000,and decreasing to 1.45 × 109 t in 2020,showing a spatial distribution characteristic of"higher in the west,lower in the east".(3)The carbon storage predictions under different future development scenarios indicated that,compared with 2020,all four scenarios showed a declining trend in carbon storage by 2030,among which the ecological development scenario experienced the least decline,with a reduction of 0.43 × 107 t compared with 2020,while the cropland development scenario exhibited the most significant decline,with a reduction of 1.05 × 107 t compared with 2020.(4)The conversion between cultivated land and forestland was the primary factor affecting carbon storage.Specifically,the transformation of cultivated land into forests plays a crucial role in increasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.Forest expansion significantly enhanced regional carbon storage,while a reduction in grassland negatively impacted carbon storage.[Conclusion]The conversion of forestland and cultivated land has a significant impact on increasing or decreasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.

central Yunnan urban agglomerationcarbon storageLULC changePLUS modelInVEST model

彭双云、陈明潇、张老伟、龚陆平、范嘉俊

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云南师范大学地理学部,昆明 650500

西部资源环境地理信息技术教育部工程研究中心,昆明 650500

滇中城市群 碳储量 土地利用/覆被变化 PLUS模型 InVEST模型

国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目云南省中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目云南省中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目云南省基础研究专项重点项目云南省基础研究专项重点项目云南省基础研究专项面上项目云南师范大学大学生科研训练基金项目

422610734197136942201037202305AC160083202205AC160014202201AS070024202001AS070032202401AT070103KX2022136

2024

10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.04.020

水土保持学报
中国土壤学会　中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所

水土保持学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：1.226
ISSN：1009-2242
年,卷(期)：2024.38(4)