The Relationship between Downloads and Citations for Academic Journals and Its Prediction Model
Taking CSSCI journals of Library&Information Science as an example,this paper comprehensively adopts the panel data model,the panel variable coefficient model and the panel threshold model to study the relationship between downloads and citations,and uses the BP artificial neural network to predict the citations based on the number of downloads.The results show that:The panel data fixed-effects model can be used to effectively analyze the correlation between downloads and citations;The citation counts of papers are mainly affected by the number of downloads with a lag of 2 years;The influence of downloads on the citations in different journals shows a tendency of convergence with a nonlinear threshold characteristic;Adopting the BP artificial neural network model can better predict the number of citations based on downloads;The download counts of some journals in certain disciplines can be used to conduct pre-evaluations so as to improve the timeliness of the evaluation.
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