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江苏省建筑业总产值的影响因素分析及预测——基于灰色关联分析及GM(1,1)模型

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本文通过灰色关联分析对江苏省建筑业总产值的影响因素进行深入分析,得出江苏省建筑业总产值相关影响因素的灰色关联度从高到低分别为建筑业企业利润总额、按建筑业总产值计算的建筑业企业劳动生产率、建筑业房屋施工面积、建筑业企业单位数、建筑业企业从业人员、建筑业企业自有施工机械设备年末总台数.构建GM(1,1)模型对江苏省 2023-2027 年建筑业总产值进行预测,模型精度满足预测要求.本文结论可为相关决策提供参考,同时也为相关领域的研究提供思路和方法,为建筑业的发展和优化提供有益借鉴.
Analysis and Forecasting of Influencing Factors of the Gross Output Value of the Construction Industry in Jiangsu Province——Based on Grey Correlation Analysis and GM(1,1)Model
This paper analyzes the influencing factors of the gross output value of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province through grey correlation analysis,and concludes that the grey correlations of the relevant influencing factors of the gross output value of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province,from high to low,are the total profit of the construction enterprises,the labor productivity of the construction enterprises according to the gross output value of the construction industry,the construction area of housing construction in the construction industry,the number of construction enterprises in the construction industry,the number of construction employees,the total number of construction machinery and equipment at the end of the year.The GM(1,1)model is constructed to forecast the gross output value of the construction industry in Jiangsu Province from 2023 to 2027,and the accuracy of the model meets the forecasting requirements.The conclusion of this paper can provide reference for relevant decision-making,and also provide ideas and methods for research in related fields,and provide useful reference for the development and optimization of the construction industry.

gross output value of the construction industrygrey correlation analysisGM(1,1)model

朱海东

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中建珠江海外发展有限公司,广东 广州 510000

建筑业总产值 灰色关联分析 GM(1,1)模型

2024

科技创新与生产力
太原科技战略研究院

科技创新与生产力

影响因子:0.271
ISSN:1674-9146
年,卷(期):2024.45(6)