Forecasting and Analysis of Physical Education Teacher Numbers in the Compulsory Education Stage Using the Prophet Algorithm
There is a notable shortage of physical education teachers in the compulsory education stage.To address this issue,a comprehensive understanding and analysis of the current allocation of physical education(PE)teachers is essential.This paper utilizes data from the"China Education Statistical Yearbook"(2003-2021),encompassing information on enrolled students,total teachers,and PE teachers.Employing the Prophet algorithm,the study predicts future numbers of PE teachers in the compulsory education stage,scrutinizes the evolving trends of teacher numbers,and explores their impact on school sports and individual teachers.The aim is to provide a reference for fostering the high-quality development of PE teacher teams at the compulsory education stage.According to the Prophet model results,with a confidence level exceeding 90%,it is anticipated that by 2027,the number of primary school PE teachers in China will reach 560,000,and secondary school PE teachers will number 300,000.By 2031,these figures are projected to rise to 650,000 for primary school and 340,000 for secondary school.These predictions offer guidance for the development planning of PE in China's compulsory education stage.Over the next decade,it is crucial to uphold or even intensify current policy efforts to expedite the development of the teacher team.A decade later,the substantial gap in the PE teacher workforce can be substantially addressed.However,it is advisable to shift the development focus from quantity improvement to quality enhancement in the PE teacher team.
prophet forecastingcompulsory educationphysical education teacherhigh-quality development
万方数据
维普
