UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF EVALUATION OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCES AND POWER GENERATION CAPACITY IN OVERSEAS WIND POWER PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
The investment evaluation of domestic wind power projects generally adopts the concept of power generation capacity reduction coefficient.However,in the development and investment of overseas wind power projects,international financial institutions usually use the P80～P90 power generation capacity as a financial key indicator in the due diligence process to control the risk level of project investment,in order to determine the project loan amount,interest,term,etc.,which in turn affects the project's yield.This paper takes the evaluation case of a wind power project in western Kazakhstan as an example.Based on the actual data of the project,the uncertainty of wind energy resources and power generation capacity evaluation is analyzed and studied on the basis of the traditional method of calculating power generation capacity using reduction factor values.The various loss reduction and uncertainty items in the evaluation process are classified in detail,and the impact of their values on the project's power generation capacity is studied.The research results show that there is a significant difference in the equivalent full load hours of the same wind power project under P50 and P90.Therefore,using different power generation capacity references has a significant impact on the calculation results of project profitability.The greater the uncertainty of wind power projects,the greater the risk.The factors that have a significant impact on uncertainty are mainly the reliability of wind data during the early wind measurement period,long-term climate changes,and the selection and performance of wind turbines.Overall,the development and investment decisions of overseas wind power projects rely solely on P50 power generation capacity,which brings significant uncertainty and risks.It is recommended to use P50 power generation capacity to judge the basic profitability of the project in the early stage of development,and P80～P90 power generation capacity as a financial key indicator to judge the risk level of project investment.The expected research results can provide decision-making references and guidance for the evaluation of wind energy resources and power generation capacity in the development and investment process of other overseas wind power projects,improve the reliability and accuracy of project evaluation results,and thereby reduce investment and financing risks of the project.
overseas wind power projectswind power investmentevaluation of wind energy resourcepower generation capacityuncertaintyexceeding probability
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