STATIC VOLTAGE STABILITY LIMIT WARNING METHOD FOR POWER SYSTEM ACCOUNTING FOR SOURCE-LOAD UNCERTAINTY
Aiming at the uncertainty on both source and load sides,the study performs the early warning of power system static voltage instability.The study first demonstrates mathematical derivation and theoretical analysis that the trend of variance coefficients of system variables changes significantly during the critical transition occurring in fast and slow systems with bifurcation and noise dual induced.Considering the noise-induced instability,the trend is more difficult to be observed and the trend detection based on fixed threshold will fail.Secondly,the critical transition characteristics and perturbation of the node voltage of the new energy power system are analyzed,and the early warning method based on the critical transition voltage collapse is proposed.For the problem of difficult trend prediction caused by noise,based on the measurement data,Bayesian change point detection is utilized to monitor the variance of the node voltage in real time,and the probability obtained from Bayesian change point detection is used to warn of the node voltage collapse at the beginning of the significant change of the trend,and the validity of the method is verified through simulation calculation.
uncertainty analysisrenewable energyvoltage measurementcritical transitionelectric power system stabilityalarm system
万方数据
维普
