Research on Carbon Emission Prediction Based on System Dynamics—A Case Study of Zhejiang Province
Firstly,according to the system dynamics model,this paper deeply analyzes the influencing factors of con-struction carbon emission in Zhejiang Province,establishes the stock flow diagram for system simulation,reveals the dynam-ic change law between economic development,population status,energy consumption and construction carbon emission,and verifies the effectiveness of the model in three ways.Secondly,combined with relevant policies,three different scenarios are set up to predict the future carbon emissions of the construction industry in Zhejiang Province,and the following con-clusions are drawn:compared with medium energy consumption and high energy consumption,the direct carbon emissions under the low energy consumption scenario are less.Finally,suggestions on carbon emission reduction in Zhejiang Prov-ince are put forward from four aspects:technological progress,mode of thinking,energy structure and policy guidance.
construction industrycarbon emissionssystem dynamicscarbon emission reduction
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