Analysis of risk factors for recurrence of early colorectal cancer after endoscopic submucosal dissection and construction of a prediction model based on Nomogram
Objective To investigate the analysis of risk factors for recurrence of early colorectal cancer after endo-scopic submucosal dissection(ESD)and the construction of a prediction model of Nomogram.Methods From Jan.2020 to Jan.2023,100 patients with early colorectal cancer after ESD were selected as research objects in our hospital,and they were divided into non-recurrence group(n=75)and recurrence group(n=25)according to whether or not they had recurred after surgery.Logistic regression analysis was performed on their risk factors,and a nomographic sur-vival prediction model was established on this basis.The C index was used to evaluate the degree of differentiation and the calibration curve was used to detect the fit degree of the Nomogram.Results The tumor location,tumor size,depth of invasion and T stage all affected recurrence after ESD of early colorectal cancer(P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic re-gression analysis showed that tumor location,tumor size,depth of invasion and T stage were independent risk factors for recurrence in patients with early colorectal cancer after ESD(P＜0.05).According to the assignment of different influ-encing factors,the total score of tumor size,invasion depth,tumor location and T stage was calculated as 175 points,and the recurrence rate at the bottom of the column chart was 37％.The C-index of recurrence risk was 0.728(95％CI:0.693-0.869),the calibration curve of the recurrence prediction model after ESD of early colorectal cancer showed that there was a good consistency between the predicted probability of recurrence risk and the actual probability of recurrence risk in the column graph model.It showed that the model fit the prediction results well(P=0.428).The results showed that the AUC of the Nomogram prediction model ROC was 0.781,the sensitivity was 72.47％,and the spe-cificity was 78.55％.Conclusion Tumor location,tumor size,depth of invasion and TNM stage are risk factors for re-currence in patients with early colorectal cancer after ESD.The model was successfully constructed,and the constructed model has good differentiation and fit.
Early colorectal cancerEndoscopic submucosal dissectionRecurrence risk factorsPrediction model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
