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学龄人口变动下湖北高中阶段教育资源需求预测分析

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学龄人口是教育资源配置的基础,建立以年龄移算为主的数学模型,以出生人口数推算高中阶段学龄人口数,从而预测教育资源需求.2024-2035年期间,高中阶段学龄人口数和在校生数出现先增长后两年下降的趋势,普通高中与中等职业学校在校生数呈现先上涨后两年下降趋势.按照学校规模的低方案和高方案,现阶段高中阶段学校缺口变现为:按照师生比低方案和高方案,中等职业学校教职工缺编严重;普通高中按照低方案超编,按照高方案最后三年缺编.高中阶段一般公共预算教育事业费支出总额总体处于先上升后期下降的趋势.建议科学预测学龄人口变化趋势,加强高中学校建设,逐渐提高师生比配置标准,加大高中教育经费投入,着力发展中等职业教育,实现高中阶段教育资源与适龄人口分布的动态匹配.
Prediction and Analysis of Educational Resource Demand in Hubei Vocational Schools under the Change of School Age Population
The school-age population is the basis of education resource allocation.A mathe-matical model based on age transfer is established to estimate the school-age population of senior high school based on the number of births,so as to predict the demand for educa-tion resources.During 2024-2035,the number of school-age population and the number of students in senior high schools will first increase and then decrease in the next two years,while the number of students in senior high schools and secondary vocational schools will increase and then decrease in the next two years.According to the low and high school scale plans,there is currently a shortage of schools in the high school stage.According to the low and high teacher-student ratio plans,there is a severe shortage of teaching staff in secondary vocational schools,while ordinary high schools are overstaffed according to the low plan and understaffed according to the high plan.The total expenditure on education in the general public budget during high school generally shows an upward trend followed by a downward trend.Suggestions include scientifically predicting the trend of changes in the school-age population,strengthening the construction of high schools,gradually improving the teacher-student ratio allocation standards,increasing high school education funding,fo-cusing on the development of secondary vocational education,and achieving dynamic match-ing between high school education resources and the distribution of school-age population.

school-age populationsecondary vocational schoolseducational resource demand

张传萍

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湖北省教育科学研究院,湖北 武汉 430079

学龄人口 高中阶段 教育资源需求

2024

武汉船舶职业技术学院学报
武汉船舶职业技术学院

武汉船舶职业技术学院学报

影响因子:0.269
ISSN:1671-8100
年,卷(期):2024.23(6)