Prediction and Analysis of Educational Resource Demand in Hubei Vocational Schools under the Change of School Age Population
The school-age population is the basis of education resource allocation.A mathe-matical model based on age transfer is established to estimate the school-age population of senior high school based on the number of births,so as to predict the demand for educa-tion resources.During 2024-2035,the number of school-age population and the number of students in senior high schools will first increase and then decrease in the next two years,while the number of students in senior high schools and secondary vocational schools will increase and then decrease in the next two years.According to the low and high school scale plans,there is currently a shortage of schools in the high school stage.According to the low and high teacher-student ratio plans,there is a severe shortage of teaching staff in secondary vocational schools,while ordinary high schools are overstaffed according to the low plan and understaffed according to the high plan.The total expenditure on education in the general public budget during high school generally shows an upward trend followed by a downward trend.Suggestions include scientifically predicting the trend of changes in the school-age population,strengthening the construction of high schools,gradually improving the teacher-student ratio allocation standards,increasing high school education funding,fo-cusing on the development of secondary vocational education,and achieving dynamic match-ing between high school education resources and the distribution of school-age population.