Objectives:In the research work of reservoir landslide displacement prediction,due to the lag of reservoir water level response,it is difficult for the traditional landslide displacement prediction model to analyze the monotonically increasing step deformation characteristics,which seriously affects the prediction results,and it is necessary to establish a landslide displacement prediction model that can consider the time lag effect.Methods:We analyze the time lag effect of reservoir levels separately through grey correlation,account for the cumulative effect of earlier rainfall,and consider the effect of earthquake on landslide defor-mation,and establishe an autoregressive distributed lag landslide displacement prediction model that can be applied to engineering sites.Results:The results show that:(1)The engineering case study concluded that rising reservoir levels and earthquakes were the main triggering factors for the increased deformation of the landslide,and the lag time of reservoir levels acting on landslide deformation was 8 days.(2)The correla-tion coefficient between the cumulative landslide displacement and the actual displacement calculated by the new model is as high as 0.992 7,with a root mean square error of 14.11 mm.(3)The calculation of trend speed ratio indicators can provide a new sensitivity evaluation parameter for landslide monitoring and early warning.Conclusions:The study establishes a physically significant prediction model for reservoir bank landslide displacements,provides a comprehensive analysis of landslide displacements,achieves a quantita-tive calculation of the seismic contribution to landslide displacement evolution,and provides new technical support for the safety risk management of the whole process of reservoir bank landslide evolution during the water storage period.
关键词
滑坡位移预测/时间滞后效应/自回归分布滞后模型/库水位/趋势速率比
Key words
landslide displacement prediction/time lag effect/autoregressive distributed lag/reservoir level/trend speed ratio
维普
万方数据