Modeling and Dynamics Analysis of the Impact of Virus Carriers on the Transmission of HFMD
In this paper,an HFMD(hand,foot,and mouth disease)model with periodic transmission rate was established to study the effect of virus carriers on disease transmission.The basic reproduction number of the model is defined.The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the existence of a positive periodic solution are analyzed.The results demonstrated that the HFMD was finally eliminated from the population when,R0＜1;while the disease becomes endemic and it varies periodically when,R0＞1.The model's parameters are estimated using the data,and R0 is estimated as 2.328 6.The sensitivity analysis of critical parameters is carried out.The study's findings suggest that the spread of HFMD can be effectively controlled by implementing several key measures.These include reducing the infectivity of virus carriers,enhancing hand hygiene and daily cleaning practices among high-risk populations,increasing public awareness and education,and strengthening the implementation of self-protective interventions.
HFMD(hand,foot and mouth disease)virus carrierbasic reproduction numberglobal dynamicssensitivity analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
