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华南地区旅游产业、经济发展和民生耦合协调路径及预测研究

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聚焦华南地区采用熵值法、耦合协调模型分析各产业综合发展水平和耦合协调阶段,并运用ARIMA模型对各省份耦合协调度做出预测,结果显示:广东省各产业发展水平较为发达;耦合协调度来看,广东最高,广西居中,海南第三;未来若干年广东省处于优质协调阶段且耦合协调度的值华南地区最大,广西和海南排名未有变化.
On the Coupling Coordination Path and Forecast of Tourism,Economic Development,and Livelihood in South China
Using the entropy method and coupling coordination model,this study focuses on the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination stage of various industries in South China.The ARIMA model is also applied to predict the degree of coupling coordination in each province.The research findings indicate that:(1)the development level of various industries in Guangdong Province is relatively advanced;(2)in terms of coupling coordination,Guangdong has the highest degree,followed by Guangxi and Hainan;(3)in the coming years,Guangdong Province is expected to remain in a state of high-quality coordination,with the highest degree of coupling coordination in South China,while the rankings of Guangxi and Hainan expected to remain unchanged.

tourismeconomic developmentlivelihoodcoupling coordinationARIMA model

庞家朋、李梦园、钟磊

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新疆财经大学,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012

旅游产业 经济发展 民生 耦合协调 ARIMA模型

国家社会科学基金青年项目

21CTY008

2024

武汉商学院学报
武汉商业服务学院

武汉商学院学报

影响因子:0.318
ISSN:1009-2277
年,卷(期):2024.38(1)
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