华南地区旅游产业、经济发展和民生耦合协调路径及预测研究
On the Coupling Coordination Path and Forecast of Tourism,Economic Development,and Livelihood in South China
庞家朋 1李梦园 1钟磊1
作者信息
- 1. 新疆财经大学,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012
- 折叠
摘要
聚焦华南地区采用熵值法、耦合协调模型分析各产业综合发展水平和耦合协调阶段,并运用ARIMA模型对各省份耦合协调度做出预测,结果显示:广东省各产业发展水平较为发达;耦合协调度来看,广东最高,广西居中,海南第三;未来若干年广东省处于优质协调阶段且耦合协调度的值华南地区最大,广西和海南排名未有变化.
Abstract
Using the entropy method and coupling coordination model,this study focuses on the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination stage of various industries in South China.The ARIMA model is also applied to predict the degree of coupling coordination in each province.The research findings indicate that:(1)the development level of various industries in Guangdong Province is relatively advanced;(2)in terms of coupling coordination,Guangdong has the highest degree,followed by Guangxi and Hainan;(3)in the coming years,Guangdong Province is expected to remain in a state of high-quality coordination,with the highest degree of coupling coordination in South China,while the rankings of Guangxi and Hainan expected to remain unchanged.
关键词
旅游产业/经济发展/民生/耦合协调/ARIMA模型Key words
tourism/economic development/livelihood/coupling coordination/ARIMA model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金青年项目(21CTY008)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据