Application of GM-ARIMA Model to Dam Safety Monitoring
In view of that the dam safety monitoring data sets have a certain characteristic of tendency and volatility,the grey model and the time series model are combined to use in dam safety monitoring.Firstly,the gray model is used to fit and forecast; and then ARIMA model is built for grey residuals to predict the residuals; the final combination of two models can be used to predict values.Taking the radial displacements of Xiaowan arch dam for example,the GM-ARIMA model is established to fit and predict,and then compare with the measured values.The results show that,compared with the traditional GM model,GM-ARIMA model is more accuracy and predictive values are closer to the measured values.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
