摘要
为了定量分析航次决策过程中存在的风险，给远洋运输公司提供科学的航次决策风险分析方法，文中将蒙特卡洛模拟法应用于航次收益的预估中。首先，针对远洋运输业务特征建立了航次决策风险分析模型；然后，确定出主要的风险因素及其概率分布情况并产生相应的随机数进行蒙特卡洛模拟实验；最后，根据模拟实验结果对航次决策中存在的风险进行分析。另外，文中还实现了风险分析的原型系统并结合实际航次业务数据进行应用验证，结果表明文中所提出的风险分析方法是可行的。
Abstract
In order to analyze the risk in voyage decision quantitatively and provide ocean shipping enterprises with scientific voyage deci-sion risk analysis method,pay great attention to the risk analysis of economic evaluation of voyage,by applying Monte Carlo to voyage decision. Firstly,a model for risk analysis of voyage decision is proposed in allusion to the character of ocean shipping enterprises. Then, determine the principal risk factors,figure out their probability distributions,and generate a group of random numbers for Monte Carlo Simulation. At last,the risk of economic evaluation of voyage is analyzed by the result of Monte Carlo Simulation. In addition,a prototype system of risk analysis is developed and the calculation result of the practical voyage data proves that the method proposed is feasible.
基金项目
总装“十二五”装备预先研究项目(51319080202)
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据