当代美国威慑理论的转向:回顾与思考
The Shift of Contemporary American Deterrence Theory:A Critical Review
江天骄1
作者信息
- 1. 复旦大学发展研究院(上海200433)
- 折叠
摘要
当代美国威慑理论的发展已经历两个阶段,其中第一个阶段是冷战后,新的战略环境催生了"第四波"威慑理论的兴起.在国际格局多极化、威慑对象多样化、威慑领域多元化的背景下,威慑对象转向恐怖主义和"流氓国家",解释方法转向建构主义,研究议题转向非理性威慑、非双边威慑、非核威慑.自2017年美国国家安全战略重返"大国竞争"以来,后冷战时代的威慑理论已然进入第二个发展阶段.在威慑理论从"第四波"迈向"第五波"的过程中,有两个重点方向值得关注:一是重新聚焦"大国竞争",回顾和反思冷战时期以"相互确保摧毁"为核心的经典威慑理论,并形成了以技术革命主义、防御性现实主义和历史修正主义为代表的批判理论;二是探索以网络、太空等新技术引发的跨域威慑、一体化威慑等新概念,在不断拓展威慑理论应用领域的同时,也出现了威慑概念泛化的问题.总体上看,当代美国威慑理论的发展呈现出多元性、融合性和竞争性三大特色,同时面临可用性悖论、必要性悖论和道德悖论三大理论困境.在现实政策层面,当代美国威慑理论给全球战略稳定和大国关系带来了持续的消极影响.降低以人工智能为代表的战略新兴技术与核武器的复杂互动带来的冲突风险,将是未来一个时期全球面临的紧迫挑战.
Abstract
The development of contemporary American deterrence theory has gone through two stages.The first stage took shape after the end of the Cold War,when a new strategic environment gave rise to the"fourth wave"of deterrence theory.Against the backdrop of multipolarity of the world order,and diversification of deterrence targets and fields,the aims of deterrence shifted towards terrorism and"rogue states",explanatory perspectives shifted towards constructivism,and research topics shifted towards indirect deterrence,extended deterrence,and non-nuclear deterrence.Since the so-called"return of great power competition"in the U.S.national security strategy in 2017,its deterrence theory in the post-Cold War era has gone on a second stage of development.In the process of the shift from the"fourth wave"to the"fifth wave"of deterrence theory,there are two key directions.The first is to refocus on"great power competition",reviewing and reflecting on the classic deterrence theory centered on"mutual assured destruction"during the Cold War,and forming critical theories represented by technological revolutionism,defensive realism,and historical revisionism.The second is to explore new concepts such as cross-domain deterrence and integrated deterrence triggered by new technologies such as cyber and space.While the application fields of deterrence theory are expanded,there is a problem of concept generalization.Overall,the development of contemporary American deterrence theory presents three major characteristics,diversity,integration,and competitiveness,while facing three theoretical dilemmas,usability paradox,necessity paradox,and moral paradox.At the practical policy level,contemporary American deterrence theory has produced sustained negative impacts on global strategic stability and major power relations.Reducing the conflict risks brought by the complex interaction between strategic emerging technologies represented by artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons will be an urgent challenge to the world in the years to come.
关键词
当代美国威慑理论/大国竞争/核威慑/网络威慑/太空威慑/人工智能Key words
contemporary American deterrence theory/great power competition/nuclear deterrence/cyber deterrence/space deterrence/artificial intelligence引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD168)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据