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公路大件运输安全监管的演化博弈与仿真分析

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为探究公路大件运输的安全监管问题,文中基于演化博弈论及系统动力学构建以行业监管部门和大件运输企业为主体的两方博弈模型,求解系统的局部均衡点并分析其稳定策略。运用Vensim软件分别仿真静动态监管机制及调整外部变量等情况的演化博弈过程,根据仿真结果提出优化建议。结果表明:静态监管机制下不存在稳定性策略。引入动态监管机制后,系统存在稳定均衡解;适度增加罚款限额及提高公众举报概率有利于优化监管体系。
Evolutionary Game and Simulation Analysis of Safety Regulation of Highway Heavy Cargo Transportation
To investigate highway heavy cargo transportation safety regulation issues,this article builds a two-party game model based on evolutionary game theory and system dynamics,with industry regulators and heavy cargo transportation enterprises as the main bodies,to solve the system's local equilibrium point,and analyze its stability strategy,and uses Vensim software to simulate the evolutionary game process of static and dynamic regulatory mechanisms,with altering external variables,thus making optimization recommendations based on the simulation results.According to the findings,there is no stability strategy under static regulatory mechanisms,while the system has a stable equilibrium solution after adopting a dynamic regulatory mechanism;moderately increasing the fine limit and improving the probability of public reporting are advantageous for optimizing the regulatory system.

highway heavy cargo transportationevolutionary gamesystem dynamicssafety regulation

赵婉如、赵璐铭、刘芳、曾传华

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西华大学 汽车与交通学院,四川 成都 610039

汽车测控与安全四川省重点实验室,四川 成都 610039

成都市公共交通集团有限公司,四川 成都 610031

公路大件运输 演化博弈 系统动力学 安全监管

四川省横向项目

H232158

2024

物流工程与管理
中国仓储协会 全国商品养护科技情报中心站

物流工程与管理

影响因子:0.412
ISSN:1674-4993
年,卷(期):2024.46(4)
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