Prediction of basic pension insurance funds in five ethnic minority autonomous regions under the background of population ageing
Objective To forecast the income and expenditure of pension funds in five ethnic minority autonomous regions,and to provide the reference for the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance system in China.Methods The logistic model for population was used to predict the working-age population and the number of population aged 65 and above in 2023-2030,and the elderly dependency ratio was calculated.The grey model was used to predict the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance funds for urban and rural residents from 2023 to 2030 and calculate the surplus of funds.Results It is estimated that by 2030,the highest elderly dependency ratio in Guangxi was 30.34%.The lowest increase of fund income was 54.87%in Tibet,and the highest increase of fund expenditure was 91.27%in Tibet.Except for Tibet,the surplus of funds of the other four ethnic minority autonomous regions showed an upward trend.Conclusions At present,the degree of population ageing in five ethnic minority areas is relatively light.In the future,the age structure of ethnic minority populations will be further ageing,and the basic pension insurance funds for urban and rural residents generally show a sustainable development trend.
population ageingpension insurance fundssustainable development
万方数据
维普
