The accurate prediction of wind power is of great significance to the operation control of wind farm and the safety and stability of power system,but the wind power has typical random fluctuation characteristics,and it is difficult to forecast wind power.In view of the unsatisfactory prediction accuracy of wind power,a wind power prediction model that takes into account the correlation of wind speed is proposed,the power correlation model between wind farms is established based on the temporal and spatial correlation characteristics of wind speed,the modal components of different variation trends are obtained by empiri-cal mode method and run-length method,and the predictive power is obtained by autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model.Through comparative analysis of wind power prediction examples,the results show that considering the wind speed cor-relation can reduce the prediction error by 35.67％,the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model can further reduce the prediction error by 5.26％,the wind power prediction model has good advantages.
关键词
风力发电/功率预测/风速相关性/集合经验模态分解/自回归条件异方差模型
Key words
wind power generation/power prediction/correlation of wind speed/EEMD/ARCH model
维普
万方数据