Modeling and Analysis of Intra-seasonal Evolution Patterns of Summer Precipitation in Key Areas of Large-scale Water Conservancy Hub Projects
In order to monitor and predict regional hydrological conditions and prevent natural disasters in advance,modeling and analyzing the intra-seasonal evolution law in key areas of summer precipitation of large-scale water conservancy hub pro-jects.The intra-seasonal evolution law in the key area of summer precipitation is analyzed from the perspective of the extreme rainfall GP model and the rainfall time series evolution model.The extreme value change index of rainfall is introduced to ana-lyze the characteristics of rainfall over quantitative change,the monthly rainfall series model is constructed,the scale index is obtained,the long-term change behavior of rainfall time series is described,and the internal law of rainfall series is analyzed.The results show that the key area meteorological stations 1～3 are affected by the monsoon and geographical conditions,and the summer rainfall in recent ten years shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.The meteorological stations 4～12 are not affected by the geographical environment,and maintain the unified rainfall trend of decreasing first and then increasing.The rainfall rules in the study area are complex.
large-scale water conservancy hub projectsummer precipitationintra-seasonal evolutionlaw modeling analysis
万方数据
维普
