Research on baseline load forecasting based on gray association analysis
Baseline load is very important for the decision of demand response.In order to improve the accuracy of baseline load forecasting,a baseline load forecasting method by using gray association analysis instead of the typical scaling factor method is proposed in this paper.the correlation coefficient is calculated by determining the load influencing factors.Further the correlation degree is obtained.Then the typical days are accurately determined according to the correlation degree,and the typical daily loads are used to forecast the baseline load.The calculation example shows that the method proposed can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.
typical scaling factor methodgray association analysiscorrelation degreebaseline load forecasting
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