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基于改进Prophet模型的Web服务器访问流量预测方法

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现有Web服务器仿真流量预测由于对突发流量变化的适应性不足,存在相对偏差较大、置信水平较低等问题。文章提出基于改进Prophet模型的Web服务器访问流量预测方法。首先对Web服务器历史访问流量数据进行预处理,然后基于经验模态分解技术对数据进一步分解,提取频率特征明显的访问流量时间序列,最后应用改进Prophet模型分解访问流量时间序列,通过分量求和实现Web服务器访问流量预测。实验结果证明,应用该设计方法,相对偏差不超过 0。1,置信水平不低于 96%,可实现对Web服务器访问流量的精准预测。
Traffic prediction method of Web server access based on the improved Prophet model
Due to insufficient adaptability to sudden traffic changes,the existing Web server simulation traffic prediction has problems of relatively large deviation and low confidence level.Therefore,a Web server access traffic prediction method based on an improved Prophet model is proposed.The article first preprocesses the historical access traffic data of the Web server,and then further decomposes the data based on empirical mode decomposition technology to extract the time series of access traffic with obvious frequency characteristics.Finally,the improved Prophet model is applied to decompose the time series of access traffic,and the prediction of Web server access traffic is achieved through component summation.The experimental results demonstrate that the application design method can achieve accurate prediction of web server access traffic with a relative deviation of no more than 0.1 and a confidence level of no less than 96%.

improved Prophet modelWeb serveraccess traffic predictionempirical mode decomposition

刘素军、杨国颖、丁佳钰、李长生

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兰州石化职业技术大学,甘肃 兰州 730060

改进Prophet模型 Web服务器 访问流量预测 经验模态分解

2024

无线互联科技
江苏省科学技术情报研究所

无线互联科技

影响因子:0.263
ISSN:1672-6944
年,卷(期):2024.21(24)