首页|成渝城市群PM2.5影响因素的半变系数模型分析

成渝城市群PM2.5影响因素的半变系数模型分析

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随着西南地区成为我国经济高质量发展新高地,成渝城市群的可持续发展受到各界关注.利用半变系数面板数据模型,以成渝城市群为研究对象,探讨PM2.5与气温、降水量、气压、平均风速、相对湿度之间的动态关系.首先,通过散点图和拟合回归曲线分析不同气象因素与PM2.5之间的线性关系、非线性关系,以及气象因素间的相互作用.其次,将半参数固定效应估计量、半参数随机效应估计量与测试程序相结合,区分固定效应和随机效应.研究发现:不可观测的个体效应为固定效应;气温对PM2.5具有负向线性影响;气压、平均风速、降水量和相对湿度对PM2.5具有复杂的非线性影响;气压分别与平均风速、降水量和相对湿度共同作用于PM2.5.建议成渝城市群充分利用地理区位特征植树造林,调整能源结构,进行人工降雨,运用科技手段治理PM2.5,以此减少空气污染.
Analysis of Factors Affecting PM2.5 in the Urban Cluster around Chengdu and Chongqing:A Semi-Variable Coefficient Model
As the southwest region has become a new momentum of China's rapid economic development,the sustainable development of the urban cluster around Chengdu and Chongqing has attracted attention from all walks of life.Using the semi-variable coefficient panel data model,this paper explores the dynamic relationship between PM2.5 and temperature,precipitation,air pressure,average wind speed,relative humidity in the urban cluster around Chengdu and Chongqing.Firstly,scatter plots and fitted regression curves are used to explore the linear and non-linear relationships of different meteorological factors on PM2.5,as well as the interactions between meteorological factors.Secondly,semi-parametric fixed effects estimators and semi-parametric random effects estimators are combined with the test procedure to distinguish between fixed effects(FE)and random effects(RE).The results show that unobservable individual effects are fixed effects;temperature has a negative linear effect on PM2.5;air pressure,average wind speed,precipitation,and relative humidity have complex nonlinear effects on PM2.5;and air pressure together with average wind speed,precipitation and relative humidity have a combined effect on PM2.5.It is suggested that the urban cluster around Chengdu and Chongqing should make full use of its geographical location,encourage residents to grow plants,adjust energy structure,create artificial rainfall,and use scientific and technological methods to reduce PM2.5 in order to reduce air pollution.

semi-variable coefficient modelthe urban cluster around Chengdu and ChongqingPM2.5atmospheric environment

陈伟、潘莹

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重庆工商大学数学与统计学院,重庆 400067

半变系数模型 成渝城市群 PM2.5 大气环境

重庆市基础研究与前沿探索一般项目经济社会应用统计重庆市重点实验室重点项目重庆工商大学研究生创新型科研项目

2018jcyjA2073KFJJ2022056yjscxx2023-211-193

2024

无锡商业职业技术学院学报
无锡商业职业技术学院

无锡商业职业技术学院学报

影响因子:0.448
ISSN:1671-4806
年,卷(期):2024.24(2)
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