首页|基于DPSIR模型的秦岭北麓陕西城市群水安全评估及驱动因子识别

基于DPSIR模型的秦岭北麓陕西城市群水安全评估及驱动因子识别

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水安全评估是水资源开发利用与区域发展的基础.为了加强秦岭北麓陕西城市群可持续建设,助力秦岭"中央水塔"绿色发展,基于DPSIR模型构建秦岭北麓陕西城市群水安全评估体系,结合主客观综合赋权法与模糊综合评价法对区域 2011~2021 年水安全进行评估分级,并利用灰色关联度法分析其水安全的驱动因子.结果表明:秦岭北麓陕西城市群 2011~2021 年水安全状态变化具有一致性,波动中稳步提升.西安市水安全等级相较宝鸡市、渭南市上升趋势显著,于 2021 年转为无警状态;宝鸡市一直保持低警状态,而渭南市长期处于中警状态.陕西城市群的水安全状态及发展趋势与人均 GDP、年降水量、人均用水量等 10 个驱动因子密切相关,其中经济因子是水安全等级呈现一致性的根本保证,社会和生态因子则是造成水安全差异性的主要原因.
Assessment of Water Security and Identification of Driving Factors for Shaanxi Urban Agglomeration in the Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains,China Based on DPSIR Model
Water security assessment is essential for water resources development and utilization and regional development.To strengthen the sustainable construction of Shaanxi urban agglomeration in the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains and support the green development of the"Central Water Tower",the water security assessment system for Shaanxi urban agglomeration in the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains was constructed based on DPSIR model.The regional water security from 2011 to 2021 was assessed and graded by combining the subjective-objective weighting method and the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method,and its driving factors were analyzed by the gray correlation method.The results show that the changes of water security status in Shaanxi urban agglomeration at the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains from 2011 to 2021 are consistent,and the fluctuation is steadily increasing.The water security level in Xi'an has shown a significant upward trend compared to that in Baoji and Weinan,and it has been in a state of no-alert since 2021.Baoji has always maintained a low-alert status,while Weinan has been in a medium-alert status for a long time.These water security status and development trend are closely associated with ten driving factors,including per capita GDP,annual precipitation,and per capita water consumption,etc.Among them,economic factors are the basic guarantee for the consistency of water security level,while social and ecological factors are the main reasons for the differences in water security.

water securitydriving factorDPSIR modelgray correlation methodurban agglomerationQinling MountainsShaanxi

徐盼盼、陈硕、马浩苑、蒋玉成、冯靖、陈洁、钱会

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长安大学 水利与环境学院,陕西 西安 710054

长安大学 旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西 西安 710054

长安大学 水利部旱区生态水文与水安全重点实验室,陕西 西安 710054

长安大学 秦岭生态环境研究院,陕西 西安 710054

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水安全 驱动因子 DPSIR模型 灰色关联度法 城市群 秦岭 陕西

国家自然科学基金大学生创新创业训练计划

42341102S202310710060

2024

地球科学与环境学报
长安大学

地球科学与环境学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.422
ISSN:1672-6561
年,卷(期):2024.46(2)
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