城市公交碳排放效率评价及驱动因素分析
Carbon emission efficiency and driving factors analysis of urban bus transportation
袁长伟 1彭琛1
作者信息
- 1. 长安大学运输工程学院,陕西西安 710064
- 折叠
摘要
近年来,交通碳排已成为城市发展过程中的重要碳排放源之一,为促进城市公交低碳高效发展,对城市公交二氧化碳排放效率及其驱动因素进行量化分析.以陕西省城市公交系统为例,利用2017～2021年公交能源消耗数据,考虑电网碳排放因子的时间变化特性,采用"自上而下"法测算出公交二氧化碳排放量,选取公交标准运营车辆数、运营线路总长度、能源消耗总量作为投入变量,客运量与碳排放量作为产出变量,建立基于松驰变量的超效率测度模型(super-efficiency slack-based measurement,super-SBM)分析城市公交碳排放效率.此外,运用对数平均迪氏指数法(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)分析各驱动因素对公交碳排放量的影响程度.并根据研究结果为陕西省公交行业提出了节能减排政策建议.结果表明:陕西省城市公交碳排放效率均值为0.65,还有较大的投入和产出空间,其中,延安、西安和铜川碳排放效率较高,渭南、汉中、安康碳排放效率靠后,陕西省各地区间公交碳排放效率差异明显,呈陕北地区＞陕西省均值＞关中地区＞陕南地区的格局.研究期内,陕西省城市公交碳排放量总体呈下降趋势,运输强度因素对公交碳排放影响效应最为显著,且体现为抑制作用,其他各影响因素对公交碳排放起促进作用,效应值由强到弱依次为能源结构强度、经济发展、能源消耗和人口规模因素,其影响效应值分别为10.48×104、9.89×104、4.35×104、3.42×104 t.
Abstract
In recent years,transport carbon emissions have become one of the important sources of carbon emissions in the process of urban development.In order to promote the development of urban public transport in a low-carbon and efficient manner,the efficiency of carbon dioxide emissions from urban public transport and its driving factors was quantitatively analyzed.The urban public transport system in Shaanxi Province was taken as an example,using the data of public transport energy consumption from 2017 to 2021,and the temporal and spatial characteristics of the carbon emission factor of the power grid was considered,the top-down method was used to measure the carbon dioxide emission of public transport.The number of standard operating vehicles,total length of operating routes,and total energy consumption of public transport were selected as input variables,and passenger traffic and carbon emissions as output variables,and the super-SBM model was established to analyse the carbon emission efficiency of urban public transport.In addition,the LMDI was used to analyse the influence of each driving factor on the carbon emissions of public transport.Based on the results of the study,energy-saving and emission reduction policy recommendations were proposed for the public transport industry in Shaanxi Province.The results show that the average value of urban public transport carbon emission efficiency in Shaanxi Province is 0.65,and there is still a large input and output space,of which,Yan'an,Xi'an and Tongchuan have higher carbon emission efficiency,and Weinan,Hanzhong and Ankang have backward carbon emission efficiency,and the differences in public transport carbon emission efficiency among different regions in Shaanxi Province are obvious,the northern region is larger than the northern region,and the Guanzhong region is larger than the southern region of Shaanxi Province.In the study period from 2017 to 2021,urban public transport carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province in general showed a downward trend,the transport intensity factor has the most significant effect on the impact of public transport carbon emissions,and embodied in the inhibition,the other influencing factors on the public transport carbon emissions to promote the role of the effect of the value of the strongest to the weakest in order of intensity of the energy structure,economic development,energy consumption and the population size factor,the effect of the value of the impact of the effect of the value of the following,respectively 104 800,98 900,43 500 and 34 200 t.4 tabs,2 figs,26 refs.
关键词
交通工程/碳排放效率/super-SBM模型/城市公交/驱动因素Key words
traffic engineering/carbon emission efficiency/super-SBM model/urban bus trans-port/driving factor引用本文复制引用
基金项目
陕西省杰出青年科学基金项目(2021JC-27)
陕西省重点科技创新团队项目(2023-CX-TD-11)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据