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自然灾害风险评估研究进展

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全球气候变化背景下,高频、高强度自然灾害严重制约着经济社会高质量发展,及时开展灾害风险评估对防灾减灾至关重要.为准确把握区域灾害风险隐患,全面提升自然灾害防范能力,本文从灾害风险评估对象、评估方法、评估尺度以及影响灾害风险评估结果的不确定性因素等方面阐述了 自然灾害风险评估研究进展,以期为风险评估深入研究提供可行性参考.综合分析表明,现有研究在综合灾害、灾害链以及灾害与其他学科的整合研究中仍存在不足,风险评价指标选取的主观性等因素对评估结果的影响以及动态风险评估方法的研究还有待进一步深入,且灾害评估尚未形成综合研究趋势.因此,应充分考虑灾害形成和传播机理,构建系统性综合灾害风险评估体系;耦合多学科理论技术,丰富灾害风险评估方法,推动灾害数据系统不断完善,实现灾害风险评估动态精细化.
Advances in natural disaster risk assessment
In the context of global climate change,high-frequency and high-intensity natural disas-ters seriously constrain high-quality economic and social development,with a timely disaster risk assessment being essential for disaster prevention and mitigation.In order to accurately grasp the hidden dangers of regional disaster risk and comprehensively improve the ability to prevent natu-ral disasters,this paper expounds the research progress of natural disaster risk assessment from the disaster risk assessment object,assessment method,assessment scale and uncertainty factors affecting disaster risk assessment results,so as to provide a feasible reference for further research on risk assessment.The comprehensive analysis shows that the existing studies were still inade-quate in the integrated disaster,disaster chain and the integration of disaster with other disci-plines,and that the influence of factors such as the subjectivity of risk evaluation index selection on the assessment results and the study of dynamic risk assessment methods need to be further developed,with the trend of comprehensive research on disaster assessment not yet formed.Therefore,a systematic and comprehensive disaster risk assessment system should be constructed by fully considering the mechanism for disaster formation and propagation;it combines multidis-ciplinary theories and technologies to enrich disaster risk assessment methods,promote the con-tinuous improvement of disaster data systems,and realize the dynamic refinement of disaster risk assessment.

disaster risk assessmentnatural hazardshazard chainsassessment methodsuncer-tainty

史晓亮、张艳、丁皓

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西安科技大学测绘科学与技术学院,陕西西安 710054

灾害风险评估 自然灾害 灾害链 评估方法 不确定性

国家自然科学基金面上项目

52079103

2024

西安理工大学学报
西安理工大学

西安理工大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.382
ISSN:1006-4710
年,卷(期):2024.40(3)