Simulation study of industrial carbon emission reduction path in Shaanxi Province under the"double-carbon"target
To achieve the"double-carbon"goal,it is necessary for the industrial economy of Shaanxi Province to promote carbon emission reduction.In order to determine the optimal path of emission reduction for coordinated economic and social development,this paper uses the relevant data from 2005 to 2021,extends the variables in the STIRPAT model,and constructs the indus-trial carbon emission prediction equation in Shaanxi Province through ridge regression analysis.Setting the benchmark scenario,low speed development scenario and high-speed development sce-nario for the industrial economic development of Shaanxi Province in the future,this paper simu-lates an analysis of the carbon emissions by Shaanxi Province industry in 9 ways before 2060 through the scenario parameter setting.It selects the optimal emission reduction path of industri-al economy of Shaanxi Province,that is,the population size reaches the peak in 2021 at the earli-est and 2030 at the latest;the growth rate of industrial economy does not exceed 6.5％,and the carbon emission intensity is controlled according to the national binding target;the annual decline of fossil energy consumption remains between-3.3％and-3.05％.The industrial economy of Shaanxi Province will achieve carbon neutrality by 2052 at the earliest and by 2056 at the latest.According to the research results,the influencing factors of industrial carbon emission in Shaanxi Province are discussed,and it put forward suggestions including promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction technology,thus promoting energy structure adjustment and optimizing in-dustrial carbon reduction pattern and perfecting the market mechanism.
万方数据
