智慧电力2024，Vol.52Issue(2) ：25-31,39.

双碳目标下我国电动汽车碳减排贡献潜力分析

Analysis on Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of Electric Vehicles in China under Goal of Carbon Neutrality and Carbon Peaking

于霄宇 纪正森 嵇灵 牛东晓 许晓敏
智慧电力2024，Vol.52Issue(2) ：25-31,39.
✕
  • 维普
  • 万方数据

双碳目标下我国电动汽车碳减排贡献潜力分析

Analysis on Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of Electric Vehicles in China under Goal of Carbon Neutrality and Carbon Peaking

于霄宇 1纪正森 1嵇灵 2牛东晓 1许晓敏1
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作者信息

  • 1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京 102206
  • 2. 北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京 100124
  • 折叠

摘要

为分析碳达峰背景下我国电动汽车行驶阶段碳减排潜力,对电动汽车碳排放进行了多情景测算分析.首先,构建PCA-SMA-LSSVM预测模型对我国电动汽车保有量进行有效预测;然后,考虑电动汽车发展、电源及电网结构优化多种情景组合,对未来电动汽车碳排放潜力进行测算分析.最后,基于测算结果提出激发电动汽车碳减排潜力的相关建议.

Abstract

To analyze the carbon emission reduction potential of electric vehicles(EVs)in the driving phase under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking,the paper employs a multi-scenario approach to evaluate EV carbon emissions.Firstly,a PCA-SMA-LSSVM model is established to accurately predict EV ownership in China.Then considering diverse scenarios including EV growth,power supply,and power grid structure optimization,the carbon emission potential of EVs in the future is calculated and analyzed.Relevant suggestions for stimulating the carbon emission reduction potential of EVs are proposed based on the calculation results.

关键词

电动汽车保有量预测/黏菌算法/最小二乘支持向量机/碳排放测算

Key words

EV ownership prediction/slime mould algorithm/least squares support vector machine/carbon emission evaluation

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基金项目

国家自然科学基金(72074013)

中国技术经济学会青年人才托举工程项目(YESS20220084)

出版年

2024
智慧电力
陕西省电力公司

智慧电力

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：0.831
ISSN：1673-7598
被引量2
参考文献量26
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