The target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality has promoted the development of renewable energy in our country.To accurately forecast the renewable energy penetration rate,a combined forecasting model based on quantum harmony search(QHS)is proposed.Firstly,the factors that are strongly related to the penetration rate of renewable energy are screened out using multilayer perceptron.Additionally,four different single-item prediction models are selected,and the results of the single-item prediction model are integrated by using the modified discounted mean square forecast error(MDMFSE)combined model.Finally,the QHS algorithm is used to optimize the weighting coefficients of the MDMFSE combined model dynamically.The QHS-MDMFSE combined prediction model is constructed to predict the penetration rate of renewable energy.The results of the case study indicate that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy.
关键词
可再生能源渗透率/量子和声搜索/MDMSFE组合预测模型/动态赋权/多层感知器
Key words
renewable energy penetration rate/QHS/MDMSFE combined forecasting model/dynamic authorization/multilayer perceptron
维普
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