[Objective] This paper studied the influences of various climatic factors,such as mean temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours at different wheat growth stages to winter wheat yields,and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of climate change on winter wheat yields in past 35 years in Urumqi. The research was helpful to manage wheat plantation and get high production. [Method] This study was based on daily temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours in winter wheat growing seasons,and annual winter wheat yield from 1977 to 2011 in Urumqi, Xinjiang. The change trends of mean temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours in winter wheat growing seasons in recent 35 years were analyzed using linear regression while the influences of climate conditions in different periods of winter wheat growing seasons on yields were analyzed by the integral regression and correlation analysis. Then the advantages and disadvantages of climate change to winter wheat production were discussed. [Result] With global warming,the mean temperature in winter wheat growing seasons showed significant increasing trend with a rate of 0. 606 ℃/10 a, while precipitation and sunshine hours had a non-outstanding increase trend with rates of 4. 010 mm/10 a and 29. 289 h/10 a, respectively. However, the changes of various climate factors and their impacts on winter wheat yields were different in different periods of winter wheat growing seasons. [Conclusion] In recent 35 years, climate change had both beneficial and adverse effects on winter wheat production. Overall the disadvantages outweighed the advantages. Climate change, especially in spring and summer with rising temperatures causes obvious adverse effects on wheat yields. Increased precipitation had certain positive significance, while sunshine hours change had no obvious effects on wheat yields in Urumqi.
climate changewinter wheat yieldUrumqi region of Xinjiang
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
