Effect of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Collaborative Development Policy on Population Growth:Based on System Dynamics Model
The change of floating population agglomeration affects the population future of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the context of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development.The system dynamics model can not only sim-ulate the impact of social and economic elements on population growth,but it can also simulate policy effects and exam-ine the impact of various policy schemes on regional population growth.The model emphasizes the feedback process of system elements in the coordinated development process of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei and incorporates multiple pa-rameters of population,economy,resources,and environment subsystems.Policy intensity parameters are designed ac-cording to the output value ratio of industries which are non-essential to Beijing's role as the nation's capital.High,medium,low and technological progress scenarios are developed to simulate population growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The robustness of the model is verified by sensitivity test.The results shows that population size and structure change between schemes.To be more explicit,as some industries and labor force in Beijing move to neighbor-ing cities,policy execution will reduce total population and relieve pressure on urban resources in Beijing,while in-creasing labor supply in Tianjin and Hebei in the future.As policy execution improves,the population aging level in Beijing will rise,while the population aging level in Tianjin and Hebei will reduce in the near term but rise in the long run.Non-capital function relocation,technology advancement,and market mechanisms can all regulate urban popula-tion growth.The policy conclusion is that different cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should implement dynam-ic policies based on population growth trends and continuously improve the carrying capacity of resources and environ-ment,in order to optimize regional population balance distribution,economic development,and ecological security.
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NSTL
万方数据
