首页|新冠感染疫情下人口超额死亡及其影响因素——基于主要国家2020年和2021年的fsQCA分析

新冠感染疫情下人口超额死亡及其影响因素——基于主要国家2020年和2021年的fsQCA分析

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相比新冠感染疫情所引发的直接死亡人口,包含新冠感染疫情引发的间接死亡人口的超额死亡人口更能反映新冠感染疫情对人口死亡的影响,因而研究新冠感染疫情下各国超额死亡人口的差异及其原因,更有利于弄清新冠感染疫情大流行对人口死亡产生的影响.使用99个国家2020年1月到2021年12月的死亡人口及其他社会经济数据,借鉴机会平等理论,从"努力"和"环境"两个维度建立新冠感染疫情影响因素的分析框架,选择相关指标,使用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法研究了新冠感染疫情下各国人口超额死亡的差异及影响因素.研究发现如下.第一,各国人口超额死亡规模和人口超额死亡率差异明显,这种差异不仅存在于不同发展水平的国家之间,还存在于发展水平相同的国家之间,这意味着引起各国人口超额死亡的原因并不相同.第二,引起各国人口超额死亡的主要因素不同,这些因素不仅与各国的经济发展水平、医疗卫生水平等环境因素有关,还与疫苗接种等应对疫情的努力程度有关.一些欠发达国家因为经济发展水平较低,医疗卫生资源不足等原因面临较高的人口超额死亡;而一些经济发展较好,医疗卫生资源较丰富的国家,由于其防疫措施不力,也面临较高的人口超额死亡.第三,降低人口超额死亡应当成为新冠感染疫情常态化背景下应急管理的目标之一,但需要根据各地的经济发展水平扬长避短,科学作为,选择合适的应对措施.
Excess Deaths and Its Influencing Factors under the COVID-19:fsQCA Analysis Based on Major Countries in 2020 and 2021
Compared with the direct death population caused by the COVID-19 epidemic,the excess death popula-tion including the indirect death population caused by the COVID-19 epidemic can better reflect the impact of the CO-VID-19 epidemic on population death.Therefore,the study of the differences in the number of excess deaths among countries under the COVID-19 epidemic and their causes is more conducive to understanding the impact of the epidem-ic on population deaths during the pandemic period of COVID-19.Using the death population and other socio-econom-ic data of 99 countries in the world from January 2020 to December 2021,drawing on the theory of equality of opportu-nity,this paper establishes an analytical framework for the factors affecting the COVID-19 infection epidemic from the two dimensions of"effort"and"environment",selects relevant indicators,and uses the method of fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to study the differences and influencing factors of excess death among countries under the COVID-19 infection epidemic.The research findings are as follows.Firstly,there are significant differences in the scale and mortality rate of population excess deaths among countries.This difference not only exists between countries with different levels of development,but also among countries with the same level of development.This means that the causes of population excess deaths in different countries are not the same.Secondly,the main factors that cause exces-sive population deaths in different countries are different.These factors are not only related to the economic develop-ment level,medical and health level,and other environmental factors of each country,but also to the level of efforts made to respond to the epidemic,such as vaccination.Some underdeveloped countries are facing higher rates of popula-tion excess deaths due to poor economic development and insufficient medical and health resources;And some coun-tries with better economic development and abundant medical and health resources,due to their unfavorable epidemic prevention measures,also face higher population excess deaths.Third,reducing excess deaths should be one of the goals of emergency management in the context of the normalization of COVID-19 infection,but it is necessary to devel-op strengths and circumvent weaknesses according to the level of economic development in various regions,act scientif-ically,and select appropriate response measures.

COVID-19Excess DeathQualitative Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy SetsInternational Comparison

周文、廖宇航

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贵州财经大学经济学院,贵阳,550025

海南医学院管理学院,海口 570203

新冠感染疫情 人口超额死亡 模糊集定性比较分析 国际比较

贵州省高等学校科学研究青年项目海南省自然科学基金项目

黔教技[2022]166号722RC685

2024

西北人口
甘肃省计划生育委员会,兰州大学, 甘肃省统计局,甘肃省人口学会

西北人口

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.806
ISSN:1007-0672
年,卷(期):2024.45(2)
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