Forecasting the Development of Population in Border Areas of China
China's land border areas occupy a unique position in the strategies of overall national security,regional development and opening-up.Population has a special status and important significance in the security and develop-ment of border areas.Based on the data of the sixth and seventh national population census,this paper prepares a multi-scenarios projection of China's border area population over the next 50 years.The projection results show that the nega-tive population growth trend in border areas will continue for a long time in the future.And from 2050 to 2060,the de-cline trend of natural population growth will spread in all border areas.In the case of migration,the total population size of land border will decline faster,especially from 2040 to 2070,the acceleration of migration will be more obvious.Un-der the trend of negative population growth,the aging process of border population will be faster.The share of the work-ing-age population and the share of women of childbearing age will continue to decline.When migration is considered,the land border areas of Jilin,Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Inner Mongolia will face severe problems of population struc-ture imbalance and fertility potential weakening.We should pay more attention to improving the production and living conditions of the border population and enhance the stability of residence.Give full play to the policy advantages and in-herent advantages of border areas to train and attract talents.Improve the fertility potential of border areas,ease the fer-tility restrictions at the border area,and pay high attention to the needs of women.The development conditions of differ-ent border areas should also be fully considered,and appropriate population plans that meet the development of border areas should be explored.
Border PopulationNegative Population GrowthSmall Area Population ProjectionCohort-component Method
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
