The Nonlinear Impact of Financial Development on Population Birth Rate:Analysis from the Perspective of Financial Structure Changes
Financial development and structural changes have a profound impact on individual marital behavior and family decision-making,and have a sustained impact on the birth rate.A comprehensive and systematic evaluation of the impact and underlying mechanisms of financial development on the birth rate is of great practical significance for promoting population growth and achieving high-quality population development.Firstly,by constructing a three gener-ation overlapping model,we explore the differential impact of China's financial development on the birth rate from a theoretical perspective.Secondly,using panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2001 to 2022,corre-sponding indicators were selected from three dimensions:banking,securities,and insurance to construct a financial development index.Empirical analysis was conducted on the relationship between China's financial development and birth rate,and the underlying mechanisms were explored in detail.Research has found that:firstly,the impact of fi-nancial development on the birth rate shows an inverted U-shaped relationship of first promoting and then inhibiting.When the level of financial development is below the inflection point,the bank credit system dominates,and financial development is conducive to promoting the increase of the birth rate.When the level of financial development is above the inflection point,securities investment dominates,and financial development inhibits the increase of the birth rate.After conducting various robustness and endogenous tests,the conclusion still holds;Secondly,there is significant re-gional heterogeneity in the inverted U-shaped impact of financial development on birth rates,particularly in regions with high levels of aging and strong implementation of family planning policies;Thirdly,with the development of mod-ern financial markets,the cost and cost of individual risk avoidance gradually decrease,and the punishment effect of childbirth gradually becomes apparent.Marriage stability and changes in household income and expenditure are impor-tant mechanisms by which financial development affects changes in birth rates.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
