The Labor Substitution Effect of Artificial Intelligence in the Context of Low Fertility Rate
Artificial intelligence replaces human labor to carry out intelligent production and complete a large number of complex production tasks is not only the result of technological progress,but also has an important relationship with the change of labor force structure caused by low fertility rate.Based on the panel data of 20 countries from 2000 to 2019,studying the labor substitution effect of artificial intelligence in the context of low fertility rate,and determining whether there is a"complementary substitution"or"extrusion substitution"effect between artificial intelligence and la-bor under the background of low fertility rate.The result shows that the development of artificial intelligence in the con-text of low fertility rate belongs to induced technological innovation type development,falling fertility rates have pushed companies to introduce artificial intelligence to solve labor shortages,so its substitution for human labor belongs to com-plementary substitution.The positive impact of low fertility rate on artificial intelligence is most evident in Asia which has low average fertility level.The relationship between AI and fertility rate has an industrial structure threshold effect.The higher the proportion of manufacturing,the larger the number of labor required for production,and the more signifi-cant the role of fertility in promoting the development of AI.Intelligent production can improve labor productivity and effectively alleviate the negative impact of labor shortages caused by low fertility rate on production activities,and then have a positive economic effect.The labor shortage is worse in developed countries than in development ones.Therefore,the introduction of intelligent robots for production can produce greater economic benefits in developed countries.In general,whether introducing intelligent robots,countries or regions should fully consider their own economic develop-ment,combined with industrial structure and population changes,measure the economic benefits brought by the intro-duction of AI in production activities,and avoid the negative impact of blind intelligence.If these relationships are bal-anced,then artificial intelligence can be an effective means for a country or region to actively address the issues of few-er children and aging.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
