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全面两孩政策后性别角色态度对生育意愿的影响研究

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人口是影响社会发展的重要因素,而自2016年开始实施全面两孩政策以来,中国人口自然增长率一直呈下降态势.基于此,文章使用CGSS2017年、2018年与2021年数据,考察了 2016年中国实施全面两孩政策后,性别角色态度对育龄人群生育意愿的影响情况.除了基准回归外,还考察了夫妻相对收入水平在其中的调节效应,以及在不同人群中性别角色态度对生育意愿影响的不同表现.研究发现,性别角色态度趋向平等显著抑制了育龄人群的生育意愿与再生育意愿,且对三孩生育意愿的负向影响程度大于二孩生育意愿.边际效应分析显示,性别角色态度趋向平等会增加不愿意生育小孩与只愿意生育1个小孩的概率,降低愿意生育2个及以上小孩的概率.夫妻相对收入水平在其中的调节效应显著,具体而言,"男强女弱"的家庭收入模式强化了性别角色态度趋向平等对生育意愿与再生育意愿的负向影响.此外,男性、农村居民、"90后"的性别角色态度对生育意愿的影响程度更大,随着受教育程度提升、家庭经济水平提高以及社会阶层认同变高,性别角色态度对生育意愿的影响大小分别呈倒U型、倒U型与U型变化.最后,针对现阶段性别角色态度趋向平等会显著抑制中国育龄人群的生育意愿这一矛盾的客观现实,提出了提高育龄人群生育意愿的政策建议.
The Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on Fertility Intentions Following the Implementation of the Universal Two-Child Policy
Population is a crucial factor influencing social development.Since the implementation of the comprehen-sive the universal two-child policy in 2016,China's natural population growth rate has been declining.Against this backdrop,this paper examines the impact of gender role attitudes on fertility intentions among people of childbearing age after 2016,utilizing data from the CGSS for the years 2017,2018,and 2021.In addition to the baseline regression,this study also explores the moderating effect of the relative income level of couples and the varying impacts of gender role attitudes on fertility intentions across different groups.The findings indicate that more egalitarian gender role atti-tudes significantly reduces the fertility intentions and desires for additional children among people of childbearing age.Moreover,the negative impact on the intention to have a third child is greater than that on the intention to have a second child.Marginal effects analysis indicates that gender role attitudes tending toward equality increases the likelihood of being unwilling to have children or only wanting one child,while decreasing the likelihood of wanting two or more chil-dren.The moderating effect of the relative income level of couples is significant;specifically,a family income pattern of"strong men and weak women"exacerbates the negative impact of egalitarian gender role attitudes on fertility intentions and the willingness to have another child.Furthermore,the gender role attitudes of men,rural residents,and those born in the 1990s have a greater impact on fertility intentions,and that the influence of gender role attitudes on childbearing intentions varies in an inverted U-shape,an inverted U-shape,and a U-shape,respectively,as the level of education,economic status of the family,and social class identification increase.Finally,in light of the current objective reality that gender role attitudes trending towards equality significantly inhibit the fertility intentions of people of childbearing age in China,the article proposes policy recommendations to enhance the fertility intentions of people of childbearing age for reference.

Gender Role AttitudesFertility IntentionsRelative Income Level of CouplesPopulation of Childbearing Age

李艳、李长安

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对外经济贸易大学政府管理学院,北京 100029

性别角色态度 生育意愿 夫妻相对收入水平 育龄人群

2024

西北人口
甘肃省计划生育委员会,兰州大学, 甘肃省统计局,甘肃省人口学会

西北人口

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.806
ISSN:1007-0672
年,卷(期):2024.45(6)