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极端高温与城市居民失业

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随着全球变暖问题加剧,极端高温给人们的工作与生活带来了极大的负面效应.越来越多的研究表明,高温会对人们的身体健康和心理健康造成诸多不利影响.在这样的背景下,探究极端高温可能引发的失业现象,以及通过何种路径缓解其负向冲击显得至关重要.基于2010~2020年230个地级市极端高温天数与城市失业率数据,探讨了极端高温对城市失业情况的影响,以及具体的影响机制和应用绿色政策可能产生的调节效应.基准回归结果表明,极端高温天数增加会显著增加城市失业率,且经稳健性和内生性检验后,该结论依然成立.机制分析表明,极端高温天数增多会提升劳动力成本,进而致使企业岗位数量减少,最终造成城市失业率上升.绿色政策应用的调节效应显示,以绿色信贷为代表的绿色金融政策和以实施新空气质量标准及环保处罚件数为代表的环境规制政策的应用,均对极端高温所导致的失业问题存在显著的负向调节作用,说明绿色政策具备稳就业效应.最后,异质性分析结果表明,经济发展水平较好的东部地区城市的失业情况受极端高温影响尤为显著.基于此,建议应更为关注气候变化影响,完善劳动者权益保障制度,以促进高质量充分就业.企业应积极主动承担社会责任,开展绿色转型,创造"绿色就业岗位".同时,政府应加强绿色政策的政策惠及面及支持力度,不断丰富绿色政策工具箱,充分发挥绿色发展所具有"稳就业"的效应,为实现"双碳"目标和绿色发展目标提供重要助力.
Extreme High Temperatures and Urban Resident Unemployment
As global warming intensifies,extreme heat brings significant negative impacts on people's work and life.Increasing research indicates that high temperatures exert numerous adverse effects on both physical and mental health.Against this backdrop,it is crucial to explore the unemployment phenomenon that extreme heat may trigger and the pathways through which its negative impacts can be mitigated.Using data on extreme heat days and urban unemploy-ment rates from 230 prefecture-level cities between 2010 and 2020,this study discusses the impact of extreme heat on urban unemployment,the specific mechanisms involved,and the moderating effects of applying green policies.Base-line regression results show that an increase in extreme heat days significantly raises urban unemployment rates,a con-clusion that remains valid after robustness and endogeneity tests.Mechanism analysis reveals that more extreme heat days increase labor costs,leading to a reduction in job opportunities and ultimately elevating urban unemployment rates.The moderating effects of green policy applications indicate that green financial policies,represented by green credit,and environmental regulatory policies,represented by the implementation of new air quality standards and the number of environmental penalties,both exert significant negative moderating effects on unemployment caused by ex-treme heat,suggesting that green policies have a stabilizing effect on employment.Finally,heterogeneity analysis re-sults show that unemployment in cities in the eastern region with better economic development levels is particularly af-fected by extreme heat.Based on these findings,it is recommended that more attention should be paid to the impacts of climate change and that the laborer rights and interests protection system should be improved to promote high-quality and full employment.Enterprises should actively take on social responsibility,pursue green transformation,and create"green jobs."Meanwhile,the government should enhance the coverage and support of green policies,continuously en-rich the toolkit of green policies,and fully leverage the"employment-stabilizing"effect of green development to pro-vide significant support for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and green development objectives.

Extreme High TemperaturesLabor DemandEmployment StabilizationGreen Policy Tools

程贵、刘宇哲、章容洲

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兰州财经大学金融学院,兰州 730020

中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京 100872

极端高温 劳动力需求 稳就业 绿色政策工具

2024

西北人口
甘肃省计划生育委员会,兰州大学, 甘肃省统计局,甘肃省人口学会

西北人口

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.806
ISSN:1007-0672
年,卷(期):2024.45(6)