Comparative Analysis of Statistical Models of Horizontal Displacement Monitoring Data of Longyangxia Gravity Arch Dam
The most important factors affecting the deformation of arch dam are air temperature and water pressure.Therefore,air temperature and its lag effect are one of the main factors to improve the statistical model of arch dam deformation.In the traditional hydraulic-seasonal-time(HST)model,the temperature component is often simulated by a series of simple trigonometric functions.The influence of the measured temperature and its lag effect on the accuracy of the statistical model needs to be further studied.Taking the Longyangxia dam as an example,typical vertical measuring points are selected.First,the HST model is established based on the measured data.Secondly,the measured tem-perature is used to replace the temperature component simulated by trigonometric functions in the HST model to establish the HTT statistical model.Finally,a HSTT(water pressure,season,temperature and time)hybrid prediction model is proposed,which takes into account all the variables in HST and HTT(such as seasonal function,measured temperature and temperature lag factor).The results show that compared with the HTT model,the HSTT model has higher accuracy,indicating that trigonometric functions also have an irreplaceable role in simula-ting temperature items;after introducing the measured temperature data,the accuracy of the statistical model has been improved;in the HTT model and HSTT model,the moving average treatment of the temperature is better than the principal component extraction as input.
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