A Dynamic Analysis of Low Carbon Energy Transition:Demand Elasticity,Competition Structure and Social Welfare
This paper extends the traditional AIDS model to the two-stage case,uses the energy consumption and business data of the four major grain traders in the Asia-Pacific region from 1980-2020,calculates the price elasticity of common energy options,and then analyzes the trend of social welfare changes brought about by the energy transformation from the upstream supply structure and the downstream demand elasticity.The results show that:First,in terms of demand elasticity,common energy options show a low-high-low trend with the change of the industry cycle.The new energy industry has entered a mature period,the original price leverage will gradually lose its effect.Second,in terms the supply structure,traditional fossil energy sources show a relatively stable and centralized supply structure,while the new energy industry shows a trend of relative con-centration-high-competition-concentration again.Finally,in terms of social welfare,traditional en-ergy companies do not incur significant welfare losses due to the relatively stable competitive market structure,while the producer surplus of new energy enterprises is then rapidly eroded due to exces-sive competition.Therefore,pure optimistic expectation cannot continuously promote enterprises'cost reduction behavior.Policymakers should design a long-term development framework of energy transformation from multiple dimensions such as market mechanism,trading mode and financing support.
energy transformationprice elasticitywelfare effectstaged AIDS model
万方数据
维普
