Rural Industry Resilience Layout Based on Systematic Risk Pattern Identification:A Case Study of Villages in Tianjin Section of Grand Canal
Abastract:As urbanization progresses,the self-adaptive,self-organizing,self-coordinating,and self-recovery capabilities of rural industries in China are in decline.The systematic nature of industrial risks is increasingly evident,manifested as a sequence of intensified external stress,diminishing intrinsic strength,and outdated governance mechanisms,leading to a deeper spatial estrangement.This study introduces a risk assessment method tailored to the rural industry system,structured around"risk source,risk acceptor,and risk governance mechanism".Utilizing diverse data from villages in the Tianjin section of the Grand Canal,it delineates the patterns of rural industry risk and advocates for a resilience-oriented strategy in risk governance.The findings indicate that the systematic risks in the Tianjin section present a spatial pattern of alternating high and low risk areas,driven by multiple factors,and adhere to a clustering principle that combines areas of low-risk balance,isolated high-risk zones,and regions where multiple risks coexist.Suburban rural areas are under greater risk source pressure,with their risk governance mechanisms notably underdeveloped.The condition of risk acceptors is chiefly influenced by agricultural types,non-agricultural economic growth,socio-economic organizational development,and resource carrying capacity.Considering the spatial variance and risk clustering,the study suggests a comprehensive strategy for risk management.This encompasses controlling sources of risk across the rural industry,optimizing risk receptors,and developing governance mechanisms.The proposed"exogenous synergy and endogenous nurturing response"system aims to foster resilience in the rural industry,providing a framework for the sustainable management of systemic risks.
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