Carbon Emission Prediction and Peak Path in the Transportation Industry:A Case Study of Anhui Province
To accelerate the realization of the carbon peak in the field of transportation,this study selects Anhui province as the research object,using the"top-down"approach to estimate carbon emissions from transportation for the period 2010-2021.Utilizing an extended STIRPAT model and scenario analysis,nine distinct scenarios are formulated to forecast carbon emissions and peak conditions from 2022 to 2035,with corresponding emission reduction policy recommendations.The results indicate that:(1)Carbon emissions in Anhui province have shown a fluctuating upward trend overall;(2)Population,per cappita GDP,urbanization rate,transportation structure,energy intensity,and energy structure all contribute to an increase in carbon emissions;(3)Moderating population growth,maintaining steady economic development,strengthening adjustments in energy structure and transportation structure,and reducing energy intensity are the most likely pathways to achieve carbon peaking at the current stage.
transportation industrycarbon emissionthe"top-down"methodSTIRPAT modelAnhui province
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