现代城市研究2024,Issue(12) :14-20.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2024.12.003

基于DPSIR模型与马尔科夫链的中国省域城市韧性水平动态演进研究

Research on the Dynamic Evolution of Urban Resilience in Chinese Provinces Based on DPSIR Model and Markov Chain

焦柳丹 韩博伟 霍小森 张羽
现代城市研究2024,Issue(12) :14-20.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2024.12.003

基于DPSIR模型与马尔科夫链的中国省域城市韧性水平动态演进研究

Research on the Dynamic Evolution of Urban Resilience in Chinese Provinces Based on DPSIR Model and Markov Chain

焦柳丹 1韩博伟 1霍小森 1张羽1
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作者信息

  • 1. 重庆交通大学经济与管理学院
  • 折叠

摘要

提升城市韧性水平有助于改善当前我国城市应对灾害风险时普遍存在的灾中抵抗不足、灾后恢复缓慢、灾害适应力弱的局面.为了研究国内各省区市的韧性水平发展情况,为未来的城市建设提供理论参考,文章基于DPSIR模型建立城市韧性评价指标体系,使用复合系统协同度模型对韧性水平进行测算,以我国31个省区市2017-2021年的韧性水平为例进行评价研究,并结合马尔科夫链动态分析各省区市的韧性水平发展趋势.

Abstract

Enhancing urban resilience can help address common issues in China's disaster risk management,such as insufficient resistance during disasters,slow recovery afterward,and weak disaster adaptability.To examine the development of resilience levels across provinces and municipalities and provide theoretical references for future urban construction,this study establishes an urban resilience evaluation index system based on the DPSIR model.It applies a composite system synergy model to measure resilience levels and evaluates the resilience of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2017 to 2021.Additionally,the study uses Markov chain dynamic analysis to explore the development trends in resilience levels across these regions.

关键词

城市韧性/DPSIR模型/复合系统协同度模型/马尔科夫链

Key words

urban resilience/DPSIR model/collaborative degree model of compound system/Markov chain

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出版年

2024
现代城市研究
南京城市科学研究会

现代城市研究

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.922
ISSN:1009-6000
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