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计及季节特性与日特性的多源-荷联合场景生成方法研究

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场景生成是应用序贯蒙特卡洛方法进行含可再生能源的电力系统可靠性评估的基础.传统的时间序列生成方法不能同时反映出风-光-荷的季节性变化趋势与昼夜变化的规律,并且鲜有研究同时考虑风-光-荷在时间上的相关性.该文将一年的数据分为 12个部分,按月份对风-光-荷历史数据的季节特性与日特性进行特征提取,形成该地区的天气-负荷特征参数库,并提出基于伊藤随机过程的时间序列生成模型,在此基础上生成多源-荷联合场景.仿真结果显示,该文提出的时间序列生成方法体现出了风-光-荷的季节特性以及日特性.生成的多源-荷联合场景满足了风-光-荷在时间上的相关性,在反映某地区风-光-荷的实际情况时有更高的准确性.
Multi-source-charge Joint Scene Generation Method Considering Seasonal and Diurnal Characteristics
Scenario generation forms a foundation for the ap-plication of sequential Monte Carlo method in the field of reli-ability assessment for power systems with renewable energy.Traditional time series generation methods cannot reflect both the seasonal and diurnal variations of wind-irradiation-load simultaneously,and few studies account for the temporal cor-relation of wind-irradiation-load at the same time.In this paper,we divide a year into twelve segments and extract the seasonal and daily characteristics of the historical data by month.These data are utilized to form a weather-load characteristic paramet-er library,and thus a time series generative models is estab-lished based on ITO random process.The aforementioned basis leads to the generation of a multi-source-load joint scenario.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed time series generation method effectively captures the seasonal and diurnal characteristics of wind-irradiation-load.The generated multi-source-load combined scene has higher accuracy in re-flecting the actual situation in a specific area.

time series simulationfeature extractionjoint scene generationITO random process

张超林、顾丹珍、黄阮明、洪睿洁

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上海电力大学电气工程学院,上海市杨浦区 200090

国网上海市电力公司经济技术研究院,上海市徐汇区 200223

时间序列模拟 特征提取 联合场景生成 伊藤随机过程

2024

现代电力
华北电力大学

现代电力

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.807
ISSN:1007-2322
年,卷(期):2024.41(5)