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基于概率最优潮流的电力系统灵活性量化评估方法

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
可再生能源发电具有波动性和随机性,高比例可再生能源的接入给电力系统的灵活性带来挑战.为此,提出一种基于概率最优潮流的电力系统灵活性量化评估方法.首先,构建电力系统灵活性资源模型.采用k-means聚类方法处理历史数据以生成场景,基于马尔可夫链模型和Copula函数构建考虑时间相关性的风电、光伏出力及负荷波动概率模型.其次,将经济成本与系统灵活性关联,在考虑系统灵活性裕度期望、缺额期望和不足概率的基础上,建立计及运行经济性的量化评估指标.第三,构建含灵活性资源的概率最优潮流模型,采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法和基于跟踪中心轨迹内点法估计系统状态和评估指标.以IEEE RTS-24系统为算例进行分析,结果表明合理配置可再生能源和储能装置有助于提升系统灵活性和运行经济性.
A Quantitative Assessment Method for Power System Flexibility Based on Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow
Given its fluctuation and stochasticity,renewable energy generation's high proportion to connect poses chal-lenges to the flexibility of the power system.For that reason,a quantitative assessment method of power system flexibility based on probabilistic optimal power flow was proposed.Firstly,the flexible resource models of the power system were constructed.Historical data was processed to generate scenari-os by using the k-means method,and the probabilistic models of wind power,photovoltaic power,and load fluctuation were constructed considering the time correlation based on the Markov chain model and the Copula function.Secondly,asso-ciating economic costs with system flexibility,quantitative as-sessment indicators that take into account the operational eco-nomy were established considering system flexibility margin expectations,vacancy expectations,and probability of deficien-cies.Thirdly,the probabilistic optimal power flow model with flexibility resources was constructed,and the system state and index were estimated by the Monte Carlo simulation method and tracking center trajectory interior point method.Finally,analyzing the case of the IEEE RTS-24 system show that the appropriate allocation of renewable energy and energy storage systems could improve system flexibility and operating eco-nomy.

renewable energypower system flexibilitytypical scenario generationprobabilistic optimal power flowMento Carlo simulationinterior point method

李文升、魏佳、曹永吉、马睿聪、张恒旭、田鑫

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国网山东省电力公司经济技术研究院,山东省济南市 250021

山东大学智能创新研究院,山东省济南市 250101

电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室(山东大学),山东省济南市 250061

可再生能源 电力系统灵活性 典型场景生成 概率最优潮流 蒙特卡洛模拟 内点法

国家自然科学基金项目国网山东省电力公司科技资助项目

521770965206002000QD

2024

10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2022.0429

现代电力
华北电力大学

现代电力

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.807
ISSN：1007-2322
年,卷(期)：2024.41(5)