导弹发射飞行可靠度评估方法研究
Research on the Evaluation Method of Launch Flight Reliability of Missile
陈佳希 1王宇浩 2程辰 1岳晓蕊1
作者信息
- 1. 北京电子工程总体研究所,北京 100854
- 2. 中国长峰机电技术研究设计院,北京 100854
- 折叠
摘要
发射飞行可靠度是导弹重要的战术技术指标,在导弹鉴定飞行试验数据无法满足导弹高可靠度指标评估要求的情况下,综合考虑地面数据提出了一种基于折合因子Bayes理论的导弹发射飞行可靠度评估方法.该方法首先将地面试验数据进行等效转换并开展一致性检验;其次,采用L-M法将地面数据折合为导弹飞行试验的验前信息;最后,采用基于折合因子的Bayes理论方法对导弹发射飞行可靠度下限进行评估.典型案例研究结果表明,所提出的方法能够充分利用导弹及各分系统可靠性鉴定试验数据信息,既降低了飞行试验的成本和风险,又增加了导弹发射飞行可靠度评估值的合理性.
Abstract
Launch flight reliability is an important tactical index of missile.Considering that the flight test data cannot meet the high reliability requirement of missile,this paper proposes a missile reliability evaluation method based on reduced factor Bayes theory,by integrating the ground data.This method first converts the ground test data and the consistency check is carried out;then,using L-M method to convert ground data into prior information of missile flight test.Finally,the lower limit of missile launch flight reliability is evaluated based on the reduced factor Bayes theory.The results of a typical case study show that the proposed method can make full use of reliability evaluation data of the missile and its subsystem,which not only reduces the cost and risk of flight test,but also increases the rationality of the missile launch flight reliability evaluation.
关键词
导弹/可靠度评估/L-M法/Bayes理论/折合因子Key words
missile/reliability evaluation/L-M method/Bayes theory/reduction factor引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据