The Impact of US Financial Sanctions on the International Status of the US Dollar
To analyze the influence of the abuse of financial sanctions by the United States on the international status of the dollar,it is necessary to answer a question that exceeds expectations in reality:the United States restrictions on the foreign exchange flow of the Russian Central bank and other measures,the use of financial management power as a strategic chip will inevitably reduce the attractiveness of dollar assets.Why does this move not substantially accelerate the process of de-dollarization of the world,especially the US dollar reserves in the global international currency reserves rather than decline in status?From the perspective of international security,countries and actors that feel insecure because of US financial sanctions have different currency choices from those that feel safer because of US financial sanctions.On the one hand,US financial sanctions strengthen the security of the sanctioning coalition,reinforcing the security of countries that do not implement the sanctions but largely agree with their targets.Despite the increased economic costs of the US,these countries are willing to accept the"safety premium"of the US dollar for geopolitical reasons.On the other hand,the aggressive use of financial sanctions by the United States makes more countries fear that their behavior will be sanctioned,thus increasing the motivation of de-dollarization,which may weaken the hegemony of the dollar.In the short term,geopolitical logic has replaced international economic logic as the main driving force for the change in the status of the US dollar's global foreign exchange reserves which is positive for the US dollar and makes it more attractive as a foreign exchange reserve However de-dollarization has not yet formed economies of scale,and its impact on the status of the dollar is insufficient.In the long run,as economic and security constraints change,the choices of countries that accept the international role of the dollar and those that seek to de-dollarize may also change.The author discusses four possible scenarios:the dominance of the dollar is not threatened,the international monetary system has become camp-oriented,the international monetary system is fragmented,and the dominance of the dollar falls.
US financial sanctionsUS dollar's international statusnational securityde-dollarization
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维普
